Categoría: Lecturas pendientes

Lecturas Interesantes

  • http_www.aikaeducacion.comwp-contentuploads201702Lectura-crtica_Aika
  • Whas does the current slope of the yield curve tell us?  Bostic. Habla sobre la famosa inversión de la curva y su capacidad predictiva sobre las recesiones:  What Does the Current Slope os the Yield Curve Tell Us? Recuerda los componentes de la yield de los treasuries (independientemente del vto): 1. Policy rate path (se centra en este componente) 2. term premium (se olvida de él ya que no está claro que sus movimientos tengan que ver con el curso de la economía).
    • I believe the yield curve gives us important and useful information about market participants’ forecasts. But it is only one signal among many that we use for the complex task of forecasting growth in the U.S. economy. As the economy evolves, I will be assessing the response of the yield curve to incoming data and policy decisions along the lines I’ve laid out here, incorporating market signals along with a constellation of other information to achieve the FOMC’s dual objectives of price stability and maximum employment.
  • Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy?  Paper del staff de la Fed. Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy

    • When choosing a strategy for monetary policy, policymakers must grapple with mismeasurement of labor market slack, and of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. […] The standard advice from the literature, that in the presence of mismeasurement of resource slack policymakers should substantially reduce the weight attached to those measures in setting the policy rate, and substitute toward a more forceful response to inflation, is overstated. We find that a notable response to the unemployment gap is typically beneficial, even if that gap is mismeasured. Even when the dynamics of inflation are governed by a 1970s-style Phillips curve, meaningful response to resource utilization is likely to turn out to be worthwhile, particularly in environments where resource utilization is thought to be tight to begin with and inflation is close to its target level.

      […]an open question facing policymakers is whether the persistent undershooting of the natural rate may increase the risk of subsequent adverse outcomes such as unexpectedly higher inflation or substantial overheating in financial markets.

      Bullet points:

    • The Phillips curve is flatter. The persistence of inflation has dropped to a much lower value, consistent with the anchoring of inflation near 2 percent in recent years. The reduction in the sensitivity of inflation to resource utilization may reflect a lower frequency of price changes in an environment of low and stable inflation, but this remains an open question.
    • While inflation appears to be insensitive to labor market slack, policy needs to take proper account of the prospects for persistently tight labor markets eading to higher inflation, or other imbalances, that could eventually endanger prospects on theemployment side of their policy mandate.

 

Lecturas pendientes

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